The main goal of the Changing Arctic Ocean Programme is to understand how the Arctic Ocean functions in a quantitative way. This information feeds into models that determine how the Arctic Ocean will react to change. These future projections are important because they help refine decision-making processes.
The Arctic Ocean is a vastly complex system with poorly understood interactions between the physical environment, defined by the presence of sea-ice and extreme annual seasonal cycles, and the ecosystem and biogeochemical cycles. To model this system in any meaningful way necessitates a solid understanding of key aspects of the ecosystem and the biogeochemical cycles that operate in the Arctic Ocean. This is an inherent component of the four large projects in the Programme, which are generating the data to test and develop the computer models further.
The models used in the programme are diverse in terms of the spatial and temporal scales they cover, the components of the marine system they are aiming to replicate, and the research questions they address. A summary of the models is presented below.
|MEDUSA-2||Biogeochemical; component of UK Earth System Model||Global||ARISE|
|BRNS||Diagenetic Model (benthic reaction-transport model)||Barents Sea shelf and slope||ChAOS||Sandra Arndt|
|“BRNSlight”||Numerically efficient encapsulation (ANN) of the BRNS for regional applications/ coupling to pelagic models||Barents Sea shelf and slope, and planned Pan-Arctic||ChAOS||Sandra Arndt|
|PISCES||Biogeochemical, focus on isoscape||Pan-Arctic||ARISE||Alessandro Tagliabue|
|PRIZE Phytoplankton model||NPZD (biogeochemical, focus on plankton)||Lagrangian testbeds on Barents, Bering, Chukchi shelves||PRIZE||Neil|
|StrathCal||Spatial demography of a copepod population||Range of C. finnmarchicus||DIAPOD||Dougie Speirs|
|Coltrane||Individual-based, trait-based representation of Calanus complex||Pan-Arctic||DIAPOD||Neil|
|Seal population models||Individual-based, statistical||East Greenland, Barents Shelf||ARISE||Sophie Smout|
|Synthesis analysis||Spatial domain||Project||Contact|
|Calanus lipid pump estimation||North Atlantic – Arctic Basin||DIAPOD||Mike Heath|
|Horizontal and vertical carbon fluxes through the plankton||TBD||ChAOS|
More information about the models applied in the individual projects is available below.